09/13/2012 14:47

Fourth quarter degree inflation or from cut pass kick

 PPI and CPI explore in a row low whether will continue?This pass the next policy adjust to control to have much big space.

  "In my submission this is just an adjustment of street, the broke is a little bit greatly affected by international economy and financial factor.First, the potential demand is still very prosperous, chinese urbanization and industrialization just in the process of prompting in, the fall prices buys into material rate to tender good opportunity for china currently;Two is a money factor, world finance turbulence after, EU is multinational to still need to passes to publish money to save economies, this will infuse into for market a great deal of liquidity, new era hats wholesale quare the rise of the bulk commodity rate still keep staging a comeback."The Yu fierce country says.

  Affect in American subprime mortgage crisis down, Chinese economies is from 2007 no 1 quarter arrive 2010 no 1 quarters experienced the big cycle of"high growth low inflation high growth higher - the inflation is low to increase higher - inflation low growth low inflation" revolving, at the latent economic growth rate level in this cycle should about 10%.But the second quarter starts from 2010, the Chinese economies physically latent economic growth rate has already cut to 9% or so.

  However, with latent economic growth rate mutually the corresponding and moderate inflation rate obviously have been already uped.Li Huai Jun thinks that currently although the economies is placed in to drop a term, and history the same period compare, CPI still be placed in versus higher level.

"This casus with positive and negative both side, on the other hand the growth of m1, m3 two years ago is far super growth of name GDP, made currently the scale of the M2 and GDP hit 1.8 high levels;On the other polarized sunglasses hand and probably mean that 9% latent economic growth rates are still higher, outran the extent that various social resource can bear, as a result spark the top of price level transferase."Li Huai Jun says.

  Generally speaking, Chinese inflation usually the performance is "the inflation of the pig", pork price determination Chinese price of commodities cycle.The benelux looks from the pig food, currently at 5.5:A this break - even clicks an auxiliaries undulation, while the pig places a column to still have an upswing for few months and still is placed in high - order.This indicates, along with the further fall of pork rate, the pig food benelux will cut to 5.5 under.

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